The super-marginal seat of Cardiff North has been named as Labour’s fourth highest target seat for the 2015 Westminster election.
Conservative MP Jonathan Evans ousted Labour’s Julie Morgan with a majority of just 194 votes in 2010 but yesterday she predicted her party would win back the seat.
She said: “I can’t see any possibility of us not winning it. Certainly, on the doorsteps around Cardiff North there’s a lot of disillusionment about the coalition in Westminster and a lot more confidence in the Welsh Government.”
Ms Morgan, the wife of former Labour First Minister Rhodri Morgan, now represents the seat in the Assembly but she said a “lot of people ask me to stand for Westminster”.
However, she said she had cast her lot in the Assembly.
More households are expected to be hit by the reductions in child benefit in Cardiff North than in any other constituency.
She said: “Personally, I believe in universal benefits but quite apart from that it’s so awful how it’s being done. Why are we taxing families with children in this way, putting a greater burden on them?”
The future of the Llanishen reservoirs – a key subject in recent elections – remained, she said, a “huge issue”.
Mr Evans was not surprised Labour has his constituency in its sights.
He said it was more significant that Conservative-held Welsh seats such as Monmouthshire and Clwyd West were not listed among the target constituencies.
He said: “The bigger story might be that for the last 20 years the Labour Party have had the objective of a Tory-free Wales.
“They achieved it in two elections.
“The Labour Party are recognising they can’t go for a Tory-free Wales.”
The Tories failed to win a single Welsh seat in 1997 and 2001 but today has eight MPs.
Attention in Cardiff North will focus on the potential of smaller parties to swing the election.
UKIP won 1,130 votes in 2010, ahead of the Greens on 362 and behind Plaid Cymru on 1,588.
The Lib Dems were backed by 8,724 people.
The most recent UK-wide YouGov poll puts Ed Miliband’s party at 44%, ahead of the Conservatives (32%), the Lib Dems (10%), UKIP (9%) and the Greens (2%).
Mr Evans insisted Cardiff North could stay blue on election night. He said: “Every marginal seat is, of course, winnable.”